Introduction: In 2022, under the epidemic situation, real estate will usher in a "cold winter moment". Upstream and downstream are struggling.
Affected by the severe decline in the sales of large-scale real estate enterprises across the country, the operation of aluminum formwork enterprises is more difficult than in previous years. On the one hand, the operating rate of real estate companies is seriously insufficient, market orders have plummeted by about 35%, tight supply and scarcity, and contract terms are becoming more stringent; Intensified, rental prices plummeted by more than 20%, and industry profits fell to the edge of life and death. The downturn in the aluminum formwork market has triggered a number of small and medium-sized aluminum formwork companies to liquidate their positions at a loss and sell off.
—Industry background and status quo—
(1) Affected by the market downturn and the price of aluminum ingots, the wait-and-see situation in the aluminum formwork market has become the mainstream
The raw materials of the aluminum formwork business come from upstream aluminum ingot products. The aluminum formwork industry is a typical large industry and small enterprise. In addition, affected by the service radius and engineering service mode, except for a very few listed companies with excellent heads, absolutely Most aluminum mold companies lack the bargaining power for upstream aluminum ingot products, and also lack the pricing power for the demand side of aluminum formwork. Therefore, it is the status quo for the industry to survive by making sandwich biscuits at both ends. Since 2022, the price of aluminum ingots has fluctuated. From January to early March, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory began to decrease in March. In mid-July, the price and inventory fell at the same time. From the end of July to the end of the year, the inventory began to fluctuate at a low level and even shift the center of gravity downward. The possibility of future inflation expectations and price increases cannot be ruled out.
Fluctuations in raw material prices have increased the demand for working capital for expansion and investment of aluminum formwork enterprises, increased production costs, and engulfed limited profits, which has promoted the stable business strategies of industry companies and the restructuring of the industrial structure, and has also prompted upstream and downstream enterprises to enter and boost aluminum formwork. The industry is on the sidelines. In addition, with the expansion of the scale of leading enterprises, the cost of aluminum formwork leasing business is expected to be further reduced, further squeezing the living space of small enterprises.
(2) It will take time for short-term policies to be transmitted to the market, and the adjustment pressure of the real estate market is still
In 2022, unexpected factors such as repeated epidemics in many places and the suspension of multiple off-plan housing projects will occur frequently, superimposed on the weakening release of medium and long-term housing demand momentum, and the regulatory policies and credit environment at the beginning of the year will continue to be optimized, but the policy effect is not obvious, and the real estate market is in a state of deep adjustment unchanged. In the fourth quarter, a number of regulatory agencies successively released heavy news to stabilize market expectations. However, residents’ income expectations are weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment for house purchases is still strong. It will take time for short-term policies to be transmitted to the market.
The launch of residential land in 300 cities across the country and the size of the transaction area are at the lowest level in the same period in the past ten years. The root cause is the reduced applicability of the "high leverage, high turnover" model. Although the fundamentals of the industry are under pressure, under the general tone of focusing on stability, the industry will build a bottom and stabilize in the medium term, and the long-term development is worth looking forward to.